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By Graham Tarr (auth.)
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Additional info for The Management Barrier
As constructors of mathematical models that they use to search for the optimum, they have developed some good techniques. But they have become tangled up in conflicting ideas of how they relate to the decisionmaker and to other scientific disciplines. The recent history of the Operational Research Society in the United Kingdom would make a fascinating case-study of a group psychosis. Symptoms of this were the emergency weekend for a fundamental rethink, called a strong society president, which led to a philosophythe Marlow concept -of a new deal between analyst and decision-maker.
9). Happily most governments have learnt this lesson and now go in for fine-tuning. 9 but there is nearly always a limit to the amount of swing that is acceptable in a business system. Instead, a breakdown is more likely where the system reaches a position from which it cannot recover. The only course open then is to switch off and start again with a new policy. 9 Your Organisation as a System 47 Although this example of the stop-go in the national economic environment will be horribly familiar to most business people, you may well not have recognised where you are introducing your own stop-go in your own business.
It is inherent in the term 'expert' that there is a common basis of skill and experience which, given the same facts, given the same premises, can lead only to one piece of advice. If it can lead to conflicting advice then where is the expertise? Why not ask the people in the street for their views, or better still sack the experts and use your own judgement. The answer, of course, lies in the premises and the facts. We can assume that at least the conflicting experts will have taken the trouble to cross- The Numeracy Ba"ier 29 check and agree on the basic quantitative data they are using (although if they are inveterate antagonists they are not very likely to do even that).