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Download The Exhaustion of the Dollar: Its Implications for Global by H. Peter Gray (auth.) PDF

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By H. Peter Gray (auth.)

The U.S. greenback has served because the key foreign money of the foreign economic/financial method for over fifty years. This examine assesses the proposition that the sequence of U.S. current-account deficits over the past two decades will almost immediately exhaust the potential of the greenback to proceed because the key currency.

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Additional resources for The Exhaustion of the Dollar: Its Implications for Global Prosperity

Example text

Clearly, readers will only read those topic sections with which they are not familiar. A list of the topics is as follows: 1. Capital flows, the rate of exchange and the current balance. 2. The relationship between a country’s current deficit or surplus and its INW. 35 36 The Exhaustion of the Dollar 3. The world as a closed economic system ( global financial and economic constraints). 4. The costs of adjustment after a major financial shock. 5. Asset positions and functional currencies. 6. The burdens of hegemony.

One reason for the small attention given to financial factors in addition to the traditional approach of the theory of international trade, could be that mainstream balance-of-payments and national income accounting models, developed in the 1950s, do not allow for spontaneous international capital flows of serious magnitude and allocate such flows to additional capital formation. The idea that current deficits are allocated completely to additional capital formation is “comforting”68 since this implies that the total net worth (INW plus the change in the stock of capital) is independent of the current account.

26 The Exhaustion of the Dollar Chapter 5 opens Part III by providing and describing the data needed to confront the first proposition and then develops the important point that the two potential triggers of exhaustion are closely interdependent so that the probability of exhaustion is the sum of the two probabilities that one trigger will be activated. The data lay the basis for the contention that a lack of confidence is inevitable in the foreseeable future by virtue of the steady deterioration of the INW of the United States and ease of encashability of such a large volume of foreign-owned financial assets.

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