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Download Apocalypse When?: Calculating How Long the Human Race Will by Willard Wells PDF

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By Willard Wells

Any formulation for predicting human survival will invite controversy. This booklet presents a special research of the possibilities of human survivability within the brief and long-term. It develops a formulation for survival in line with 4 separate measures.

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Additional info for Apocalypse When?: Calculating How Long the Human Race Will Survive (Springer Praxis Books Popular Science)

Example text

You ®rst drew a pure isotope of ®cticium, not knowing which isotope it is, and found that its decay matched one of the dotted curves in Figure 3, rather than the solid curve that represented the average. However, prior to observation the solid curve was still your best estimate. In this case the P s are merely probabilities, but in a mixed ensemble they are actual abundances of the various types, in which case theory and statistics do agree. All the theoretical curves, which began with Figure 3, are based on ignorance of real hazards.

Some theorists de®ne probability strictly in terms of the frequency of outcomes following repeated trials. For them indi€erence has no meaning. Most of us use a more relaxed de®nition, which allows best estimates prior to any trials. ) As Guy played with his die without ®nding any bias, he gained more con®dence in its fairness. He conjectured that it came from a discarded child's game and fell from a trashcan. Since manufacturing defects (perhaps an o€-center bubble inside) are rare, Guy's con®dence was high at the outset and higher after visual inspection.

However, parameter J di€ers from one entity to another. It di€ers not only among broad classes such as stage production and business ®rms, but also among categories such as service ®rms and manufacturing. It is tempting to interpret J as a gestation period. Since T is measured from birth, negative T represents the prenatal period during which hazards can cause miscar- Formulation 13 riage. This idea extends back to T ˆ ÀJ, at which time the formula breaks down. ) This breakdown might be acceptable, however, if we interpret T ˆ ÀJ as the inchoate moment of conception.

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